Gamescom 2014 Discussion

Gamescom is happening today, so lots of gaming news is happening. We can discuss it in here. I still have to catch up on MS', but I'll be watching Sony's live if possible.

Looks like MS moneyhatted Rise of the Tomb Raider as an Xbox exclusive.

Just when they started hinting Lara went both in the game, they took that out in real life.

For whatever it is worth, signs point to Tomb Raider being a timed exclusive. It still annoys me (timed exclusives in general annoy me regardless of what console I own).

That's probably the case. I'm not too fussed about Tomb Raider anyway.

However, there is also confusion ongoing about whether or not Rise of the Tomb Raider is going to be published directly by Microsoft Studios.

(edit) NeoGAF is saying it is indeed a timed exclusive now.

And for you folks who liked Rayman, Michel Ancel apparently has a PS4-exclusive project called Wild in the works where you play as various animals.

Some quick thoughts on Sony's Conference:

Infamous First Light and LBP3 continue to look really fun.

Tomorrow Children (I'm not sure exactly what this was) and Volume (looked very MGS1/2) looked intriguing.

Rime still looks cool.

Tearaway for PS4 looks really cool. Definitely looks to include enough new stuff for a doubledip. Hopefully this means there might be more Tearaway in the future. Would have loved to see Media Molecule's next new game on PS4 though.

I love the idea of a game based on slasher flims like Until Dawn, but I can't imagine it being very fun to play.

Hellblade intrigues me a lot. The name and Kai like main character makes it seem like a Heavenly Sword spiritual Sequel. I hope that it builds on the combat ideas they developed there and then further in DmC. I think if you combined the gameplay of DmC (or something close to it quality wise at least) with the presentation/characters of Ninja Theory's other games, we could have a real winner.

MGS' Box trailer was hilarious.

And Wild looks rad. I love Ancel.

Also on a non-Sony side, I really liked the Quantum Break demo. The time stuff looks to add a decent tweak to the cover based shooting and I believe Remedy will deliver on the presentation/story side of things. Looks more intriguing than The Order for me right now.

I was very pleased to see Tearaway. I was hoping that franchise getting its start on Vita might hurt a chance for a new game, but now since it's coming to PS4 the chance of survival is a lot greater.

I was pretty fed up with Sony after hearing about the Journey and Unfinished Swan remasters before the show. As if people bought Ps4s just to play old indie games again. Ugh. BUT they really nailed the conference. A lot of the new games look quite unique.

My only gripe was when they brought up Destiny AGAIN and its timed-exclusive crap.

Well, looks like Rise of the Tomb Raider really is a true Xbox One exclusive.

Still a bit skeptical about a Kojima led silent hill but from what I've seen: so far so good.

Kojima produced Lords of Shadow, and I rather liked that one. Wonder who the guys developing the new SH are.

@San: I don't feel like watching a 13-minute video (being lazy!), does it contain evidence that TR is a true exclusive? MS refuses to say it is exclusive without attaching Holiday 2015 to it. People like Geoff Keighley and Andy MacNamara seem to think it is timed. Hell it sounds like it might be be cross gen, because it never says Xbox One either. So I think there might be a 360 version. If it was really truly exclusive, why would MS dance around it? I'd be shocked if this doesn't come to PS4 and PC in 2016. And this isn't just wishful thinking on my part either.

Here is a video on Far Cry 4's new Shangri-la levels. This game looks so amazing.

It's timed. The last game was super-expensive. By casting the net as wide as they did console/gen-wise, they were able to make a profit. ROTR looks just as pricey. This is a gamble to get more console buyers and/or sell more copies for the install base this fall. Sometime next year, PS owners will probably get it. Seems dastardly for MS to offer more money but equally so for SquareEnix to accept it.

That guy gets really pissed. I'm more pissed that X-Box FIFA games are exclusive to the FIFA Legends for Ultimate team. That would be my chance to play as the great Paolo Maldini again, but no X-Box sucks in Europe so they have to try and bribe the Europeans with soccer players.

This sums up my problem with the Xbox quite well. They can't get exclusives so they buy out games from other consoles, splitting the market more. THEN they prevent them from going to PC (See Gow, Halo) where they could be so much better just so they can actually say it's exclusive.

Dear Microsoft: get out of consoles

I'm really not a fan of timed exclusives in general. I wonder if their market research has determined the effectiveness of selling consoles in that strategy.

Genuinely curious now.

I thought that on Square's part, it was a way of guaranteeing they'd make a profit on the game considering that they complained about sales of the PS3/360 reboot not being up to snuff - although arguably their expectations might have been unrealistic to begin with. Ben Kuchera of Polygon (yeah, I know) did some article explaining how RotTR being a timed exclusive was a good thing and might sell more units than being a multiplat release would have been, and that MS's support may also have come with programming help and marketing support, not necessarily just writing a big check to Square Enix and saying "Here's some money as long as you keep this off of PS4 for at least a year/indefinitely/whatever."

For Microsoft, their approach to getting games seems to be a blatant cock-block. I think they don't necessarily care about being the only place to play Tomb Raider, which hasn't been a console-driving series since 1997, but they do care about weakening Sony's library even if the game bombs. Most of their dynamite "timed exclusives" have been games that almost always sold better on PlayStation.  They did it last generation with all those Japanese games. Those games bombed on 360, but having exclusivity to them helped MS in that people had fewer reasons to buy a PS3.

And even when the exclusivity expires, the games' benefits to the rival platform are generally gone, even with the GOTY editions with all the DLC. They're now "Christmas cakes" and aren't as desirable anymore, because more stuff has come out that's going to get the spotlight.

An exclusive of a red-hot series will drive sales to a degree. Halo has always gotten people to buy Xboxes, and Nintendo's franchises drive sales of that hardware. Final Fantasy VII almost singlehandedly catapulted the PS1 into first place ahead of the Saturn and the N64, which had both been expected to outsell it before January 12, 1996. But Tomb Raider isn't going to sway the console market anymore.

This makes more sense for me if MS thought they could get away with people not knowing it was timed. But just say it was a real exclusive, those saying that TR isn't a system seller are missing the point. It wouldn't have to be. The aim would probably be to strengthen their group of exclusives. Also I imagine the larger public will see this advertised for Xbox One in Fall of 2015 with MS saying only on Xbox and it might as well be an exclusive. More so if the period of exclusivity is lengthy. Most casual buyers won't know it is timed probably right?

It is hard to know if it is a good deal for anyone without knowing the specifics. Kuchera's article is ridiculous though. At one point they say something like out of 100 people, 50 probably own both consoles while 25 own just an Xbone and 25 just own a PS4, so because of the people that own both, cutting out PS4 isn't cutting out many people. That ignores the disparity between the two systems sales and goes way too high with the amount of people who'd own both, even by the time TR would release. He just makes up a shit ton of ideas that maybe might possibly make this a good deal for MS and Square if they all are true (admittedly my post has a lot of guesswork too, but it is just a post on a forum and I'm admitting to having no idea whether it is a good idea or not). The marketing point is a good one though. MS will probably put some serious muscle behind it there.

Because of the discrepancy in install bases, I have a hard time thinking the deal is worth it for Square either. Because as San mentions whenever it does arrive on PlayStation the sales will likely be greatly diminished since that is usually how these things go, GotY Edition or not. But they took the deal. They must know more than me. Maybe the money (or other help if there is any) is higher than I expect.

Worth noting Sony isn't free of this timed exclusive stuff. I think a long running series aspect with a long time presence on PlayStation made the uproar extra loud for this (and I think that is fair to be more angry, a new IP no matter how cool looking might be easier to forgive than something like this for a fan).

Also the reboot's budget was probably a bit out of control due to a long dev time that had many scrapped ideas. Plus a whole new engine. I'm guessing having the general layout of the new series and engine mostly in place would mean the sequel's budget wouldn't be as bad. Meaning expectations for sales wouldn't be so out of control. Easier to make a profit. I could be totally wrong though. Who knows!

Admittedly, Kuchera's math was really bizarre, just like Polygon's math was when they made that ridiculous claim about how well they thought Mario Kart 8 would sell.

I myself think Square Enix would have sold far more copies of TR as a multiplatform than it will as a Xbone exclusive. The first game sold better on the PS family than the Xbox family. The PS4 version of the Definitive Edition apparently outsold the Xbox One version 2:1. Furthermore, the disparity in install base between the PS4 and the 'Bone that exists now will probably only get bigger as time goes on, especially in what was probably TR's biggest market, Europe.

But with Microsoft assuming some of the risk of development and maybe giving it a marketing push, Square Enix might think they'll make more money from TR even if the game doesn't push as many units either at launch on the One or later on on the PS4. One thing Ben Kuchera said that was right was that profits, not unit sales, are what matters. At least in the short term, anyway. And for Microsoft, every exclusive game it has is a game that Sony doesn't get, which was why they spent beaucoup bucks in 2006-2007 scoring exclusives like Tales of Vesperia that were very bad mismatches for the 360's userbase.

That is definitely true on the profits over sales thing. But then Ben Kuchera had this exchange on Twitter...

I think Microsoft also wanted to use TR to go head-to-head against Sony's Uncharted 4.

EDIT: Whether they're trying to justify an exclusivity deal or predict Mario Kart 8's sales, Polygon's math and reasoning are bizarre, to say the least.

Yeah very possible. And maybe Square thought UC4 might cannibalize sales of TR on PS4, so maybe they thought the MS deal would be good. They get money from MS then release TR later on PS4 instead of right up against Uncharted?

I wish I could say that is the worst thing I have ever seen a Polygon member post. I'd even settle for worst thing that a Polygon member not named Arthur Gies posted. But sadly, this is the reality we live in.

Incidentally, as far as profits go, the Tales series was very nearly killed by the 360 exclusivity deal for Vesperia because the game was such a poor mismatch for the 360's userbase in the US and was on a console that had been soundly rejected by the Tales series' core audience in Japan, so Square Enix is taking on a certain degree of risk with this deal as well, especially if the Xbox One completely tanks in the next couple of years as the PS4 gains steam. Thankfully, they recouped some of their losses on the PS3 version of Vesperia, but I don't think Namco is ever going to put a Tales game on a Microsoft console again after that happened.

Microsoft is probably thinking that a bulk of potential buyers will have upgraded from a 360 to a Xbone by that point. And if not, maybe folks are still using their 360s and haven't made the jump to PS4 either. In either case, people who don't own either a 360 or a 'bone are SOL.